Truly Outrageous

National and CA exit poll results

A ton of information to process here [click here for the large size], but this is what I’m thinking about:

In California, young people (18-29) voted against Prop 8. Hope! (Hope, also, because the margin voting for Prop 8 was 52%, versus 62% eight years ago the last time this was on the ballot and passed.)

But also, more concretely, in terms of moving forward — 70% of black voters voted for Prop 8. This is in comparison to 53% of Latino voters who supported the ban, mirroring the state overall, and Asian voters and white voters, who voted 51% against the proposition. Why?

Do religious beliefs play a role? Sure. Obama not directly endorsing gay marriage? Maybe. What those numbers really tell us, though, is that the No on 8 campaign didn’t connect to minority voters, and particularly African-American voters, in a meaningful way. Look at Prop 4. Do you think socially conservative families — of whatever background — are digging on the idea of teen confidentiality for abortion services? Of course not. That’s why the No on Prop 4 campaign focused on teen safety and the worst-case scenario of teens whose lives and homes could be jeopardized by parental notification (just take a gander at their website to see what I mean). Looking at the numbers, it seems that this argument at least had an impact on the black community, which still voted in favor of the proposition, but by a much lower percentage (51%).

No on 8′s campaign focused on the premise (I call it a fact) that Prop 8 is ‘unfair, unecessary and wrong’. Yes, but that is not an argument that reaches across experiences and moves voters who are not already supportive of gay marriage. There is a reason that communities of color see gay marriage as a ‘white issue’, and I think that also speaks to a need to reach out more to LGBT communities of color and make sure they are part of the process.

These are my first, tentative, thoughts on what to question and consider as we move forward from the passage of Prop 8 — and in terms of organizing/campaign strategies in general. Luckily, Pam Spaulding has a more reasoned, detailed argument on the subject. (I avoid comments like the plague these days but if you have any resistance to what she writes, read the comment thread. Every question/defensive reaction is there with responses.) [h/t harrietsdaughter for the link]

ETA:  I realize this post could be read to mean that I think Prop 8 didn’t pass because of black voters.  No; I could just as easily written about married people or folks over the age of 65, who both voted for Prop 8 in larger numbers according to the exit polls.  This post at the LJ community debunkingwhite points out how the results themselves a larger-than-average margin of error.  That said — I still think the goals and processes of large-scale campaigning/organizing efforts will benefit by recognizing/listening to, rather than ‘targeting’, POC.  (See also La Macha’s post @ VivirLatino.)